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CAIRO -- The statement of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) official urging the Egyptian government to cut energy subsidies has stirred up debate among local experts.
On Tuesday, Masood Ahmed, IMF chief for the Middle East and Central Asia, told reporters in Dubai that Egypt should cut energy subsidies and spend more in other fields to reinvigorate its ailing economy.
Ahmed said Egypt spends on energy subsidies two to three times what it puts on education. "This policy has to stop. Energy subsidies are pervasive and bring about further financial and economic burdens."
Egypt has been negotiating with the IMF since 2011 on a 4.8- billion-U.S. dollar rescue loan, "but its huge energy subsidies are a concern for the IMF," said the official.
Some Egyptian experts agree with the IMF recommendation to cut the subsidies while others say it will be "a crime" if it affects the poor and the middle class. Yet most of them believe that cutting subsidies will boost the economy if it is well studied and carried out.
"Cutting subsidies on basic commodities such as gas cylinders, diesel and energy material in general is a crime if it affects the poor in Egypt," said economic expert Ahmed al-Naggar of Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.
Naggar said that the IMF, however, is right, as 75 percent of the energy subsidies went to the rich, including investors, business tycoons and factory owners.
"Unfortunately, the government raised the price of gas cylinders used by poor Egyptians, which means that the government' s notion of cutting subsidies harms the poor and the middle class, " Naggar said, stressing that he did not reject the policy of cutting subsidies but rejected its misapplication.
"I am against touching the subsidies for the poor and I agree to cut energy subsidies for the well-to-do, including resort owners, tycoons and capitalism leaders."
For his part, international energy expert Ibrahim Zahran told Xinhua that "subsidies equal to corruption" if it is not well studied. "Personally, I am 100 percent with cutting subsidies."
Egypt spends annually around 18 billion dollars on energy subsidies, at least one-third of which was stolen, said Zahran.
"The government gets the subsidies money from the tax-payers, so if there is a way to make sure they will get their due shares of subsidies, it will be great to cut subsidies and save the state billions of dollars," Zahran explained.
But, Zahran said, if the government attempted to cut energy subsidies, even if in the right way, the anti-government media and the opposition would accuse it of being against the poor. "The country can cut energy subsidies and compensate the poor in cash so that it would not affect them."
"I am not keen on getting the IMF loan, but to be honest cutting subsidies is one of the right steps on the way for economic reform," he told Xinhua.
Egypt is currently facing an ailing economy with a budget deficit of over 21.5 billion dollars, and foreign currency reserves declined from 36 billion dollars in January 2011 to 14.4 billion dollars at the end of April 2013.
"If we cut energy subsidies, we will save at least 40 percent of the budget deficit," said Abdel-Rahman Alian, economics professor at Ain Shams University and former chief of Economy Institute.
However, Alian said cutting subsidies must be accompanied with comprehensive studies to secure the needs of the poor and avoid their "revolution."
The professor also agreed that the country could only cut energy subsidies provided to factories and other investments and make sure these businesses would not make up for it through raising prices to transfer their loss to consumers.
"In the end, responding to this IMF demand is dangerous as it might lead to overwhelming destructive protests," Alian warned.
On Tuesday, the IMF said that inflation in Egypt is expected to rise to 10.9 percent in 2013, the highest level since 2010.
With regards to the significance of the IMF loan, Alian said " the loan itself is nothing, but it is regarded as a testimony of the IMF, the World Bank and the West that Egypt's economy is trustworthy and Egypt is able to fulfill its financial commitments. " |