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China to return to double digital growth in 2010, report
   日期: 2010-02-08 09:38         编辑: 杨云涛         来源: Xinhua


BEIJING, Feb. 7 (Xinhua) -- A top Chinese think tank forecasted the nation's economy would experience a mild rebound this year, with gross domestic product expanding around 10 percent year on year.

Among the three economic engines, investment is expected to contribute 6.3 percentage points to the GDP growth, while consumption will contribute 4.2 percentage points. Net export will drag down the growth rate by 0.5 percentage points, the Center for Forecasting Science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences said in a report issued Saturday.

A saleswoman adjusts price tags at a local supermarket in Guangzhou, capital of south China's Guangdong Province, Jan. 21, 2010. According to National Bureau of Statistics, China's consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, rose 1.9 percent year on year in December last year, and fell 0.7 percent for the full year in 2009. (Xinhua/Chen Yehua)

The GDP may expand 11 percent in the first quarter and see a moderate slowdown in most of the remaining year, the report said.

The annual GDP growth rates for the second, third and fourth quarters are projected at 10.2 percent, 9.5 percent and 9.8 percent, respectively, it said.

Investment would continue to increase as a result of the government's economic stimulus measures, with focuses in agriculture, transportation, and industries relating to people's livelihood, but the annual investment growth would slow down from 30.1 percent in 2009 to 25 percent, the report said.

Foreign trade is expected to see a marked recovery as overseas demand rises due to the recovery of the world's economy.

Total value of the foreign trade would advance 17.6 percent year on year, with export up 16.6 percent and import up 18.9 percent, according to the report.

The report also estimated that consumption price index (CPI), a major gauge of inflation, would rise 3.06 percent from a year earlier, as a combination of economic revival, ample liquidity, and inflation expectations would drive up the prices.

The producer price index (PPI) would jump 5.22 percent year on year, it added.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed China's economy expanded 8.7 percent last year, of which investment growth contributed 8 percentage points, consumption contributed 4.6 percentage points, while net exports dragged down GDP growth by 3.9 percentage points due to sluggish external demand.


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